Tesla and the science behind low-cost, next-gen million-mile EV

The future of the auto industry may boil down to the difference made by a single letter: R. As in, the difference between a lithium-ion battery, like those found in today’s electric vehicles made by Tesla and others, and the lithium-iron phosphate batteries coming soon to market.

As Elon Musk’s Tesla has been talking up new battery technology development as part of the lead-up to the company’s first-ever Battery Day for investors, Wall Street is buzzing about the difference the next generation of batteries may make. Vehicles with lithium-ion batteries, also used in cellphones, are expected to give way over the next few years to cars and trucks made with lithium-iron phosphate and other chemistries. This will cut costs, extend vehicle ranges to 400 miles or more between charges and enable batteries to last as long as 1 million miles.

Reducing Tesla’s own costs and spurring mass adoption of EVs remain critical priorities for Tesla, as echoed in a message from Musk to employees on Monday saying it would be a challenge to break even right now.

The new technology will change the experience of owning a car, whether a Tesla or one made by rivals like General Motors, which is also working on new battery technologies, analysts said. In particular, the extremely long life of batteries soon to hit the market are likely to mean the batteries hold their value well enough to be resold when owners trade in their cars, possibly for use storing solar electricity for homes. And the next-gen batteries’ long lives may let them be used in ridesharing businesses that demand cars that can take the pounding of near-continuous use.

“If you’re talking about batteries that can last twice as long for the same price, it completely changes the math for the consumer,” says Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. “Iron phosphate batteries are safer, and they can have second or third lives as electricity storage.”

Musk recently said its Battery Day is tentatively scheduled for September, the month and day to which Tesla recently pushed back its annual shareholder meeting. Originally, both events had been planned for June.

“We want to leave the exciting news for that day, but there will be a lot of exciting news to tell,” Musk said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call. “I think it would be one of the most exciting days in Tesla’s history.”

The company didn’t return requests for comment. An outside Tesla technical advisor, Jeff Dahn, a professor at Dalhousie University in Canada who is a battery and energy-storage expert with a Tesla research sponsorship, declined comment.

Shirley Meng, a materials scientist and professor at the University of California San…