1) The US wants oil prices to be lower
2) Iran can add 500k bpd right away and another 500k bpd by year end
That’s the recipe for a deal. There’s been a small further dip in oil prices on these headlines.
After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though. Our negotiating partners need to be realistic, avoid intransigence and heed lessons of past 4yrs. Time for their serious decisions.
I think a high probability of a deal should be priced in but you never know with the oil market. Between this and the growing likelihood of peace in Ukraine, there’s plenty of reason to suspect we will have lower oil prices by month end.
In the FX market, a deal could put some downward pressure on
Read More: Iran nuclear negotiator says ‘closer than ever’ to agreement