The reality of the on-the-ground situation in Ukraine is that separatists have controlled parts of the country for eight years. They’re recognized from abroad as part of Ukraine but, effectively, they’re not.
A French Presidency source cited by Reuters said measures could be taken if “government-controlled” Ukraine was invaded.
What that really means is that if only non-controlled territory was taken, the measures wouldn’t be taken. That would allow Putin to declare the region as independent and provide security.
Moreover, with the area already controlled by separatists, Russia’s military can waltz in without any fighting.
Ukraine would have the option of counter-attacking, but that’s why thousands of Russian soldiers are on the border. They’re there to deter a counter attack. If they do counter-attack, Russia’s military can crush them.
Ukraine counter-attacking is unlikely.
So then question will be: What repercussions will Russia face? With leaks today suggesting it won’t be SWIFT or energy, Russia basically has the green light.
There’s an entirely-plausible scenario where Russia invades Ukraine this weekend and by Monday it’s risk positive.
Read More: Will this all be about ‘government-controlled’ Ukraine?